Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 26, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

Week 26 (June 23-June 27, 2025) National average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.880 yuan/jin, Anhui rapeseed oil content 42-43%, quoted at 2.85-2.95 yuan/jin; rapeseed in Hubei quoted at 2.85 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Jiangsu is around 2.85 yuan/jin; old rapeseed price in Hunan is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Hubei is around 2.85 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Sichuan is 3.00 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of the country have been stable with a slight decline. Demand in Sichuan, Shaanxi and other places is relatively strong, while other regions are relatively stable. At present, the new season rapeseed is fully on the market, and the peak stockpiling is basically over. Now it is replenished on demand, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. On the supply side, the new season rapeseed main producing areas have increased production and sufficient supply. Traders are taking a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market and are suppressing the price of rapeseed, which is restricting the price of rapeseed. Due to the off-season of the industry, the terminal market is slow to move goods, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal have both fallen, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is low, which has dragged down rapeseed.

It is expected that the price of new season rapeseed will be mainly stable in the short term. Domestic rapeseed has a bumper harvest and sufficient supply. The price of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the terminal market is weakening, and the price of rapeseed may still fall steadily. However, the price of rapeseed is low, and traders are willing to support prices, which slightly supports the rapeseed market. In the later stage, pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that as of the week of June 22, Canada's rapeseed exports were 117,900 tons, a decrease of 10.3% from the previous week (131,400 tons). From August 1, 2024 to June 22, 2025, Canada's canola exports were 8.9319 million tons, an increase of 52.7% from 5.848 million tons in the same period of 2023/24.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 26th week (June 23-June 27, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,672 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the price of rapeseed oil futures fell this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9,466 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and also weakened the demand expectations for biodiesel raw materials; second, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut warning, Powell’s delay in cutting interest rates has aroused Trump’s dissatisfaction, and Trump hopes that Powell will resign. Third, Malaysia’s palm oil production in June is expected to increase by 10-15% month-on-month, suppressing the palm oil market. Fourth, market sentiment is easily affected by crude oil and foreign oils and fats, and the market is weak.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. Rapeseed oil consumption is in the off-season, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is increasing, and the market is in oversupply. Rapeseed oil's upward space is still constrained by high inventory, and we need to wait for rapeseed oil to be destocked or for China-Canada trade relations to turn around.

Rapeseed oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, geopolitics and policies support the oil market. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to risks such as extreme weather speculation in Canada's main producing areas, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 26 (June 23-June 27, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal fell sharply this week. Due to the increase in the domestic rapeseed machine operation rate, the supply of rapeseed meal tended to be loose, and the easing of tensions in the Middle East caused crude oil prices to plummet, suppressing the meal market. The peak season of aquaculture is coming to an end, the demand for rapeseed meal has weakened, and the sales speed is not fast, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will still be mainly oscillating in the short term. Negative factors such as the increasing supply of soybean meal and the improvement of Sino-Canadian relations continue to affect the rapeseed meal market. The supply side of rapeseed meal is under great pressure, and the demand side lacks obvious support. In the later stage, pay more attention to the price difference of soybean meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.