Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 25, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

Week 25 (June 16-June 20, 2025) National average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.917 yuan/jin, Anhui new season rapeseed oil content 42-43%, quoted at 3.05 yuan/jin; Hubei new season rapeseed oil content 42%, oil color 80 points quoted at 2.85 yuan/jin; Jiangsu old season rapeseed price is around 2.85 yuan/jin; Hunan old season rapeseed price is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; Hubei old season rapeseed price is around 2.85 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price is 3.05-3.15 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of the country are relatively stable. At present, the new season rapeseed is fully on the market, the quality of rapeseed in various regions is good, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable, which is good for the rapeseed market. In terms of supply, the output of the main producing areas of new season rapeseed has increased, the supply is sufficient, and the oil mills have a strong mentality of suppressing prices, which restricts the price of rapeseed. Due to the hot weather, the domestic oil mills have a low operating rate, and there are fewer ships for long-term rapeseed, which supports the rapeseed market.

It is expected that the price of new rapeseed will be stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed harvest is good, the supply is increased, and the demand for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the terminal market is sluggish. The price may still fall steadily. In the later period, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: The soil moisture in the rapeseed producing areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta, Canada was not good in the early stage. Although the planting progress of Canadian rapeseed has been accelerated this year, the quality rate of early-planted rapeseed is generally good, which is good for international rapeseed prices.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 25th week (June 16-June 20, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is: 9936 yuan/ton, which is higher than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the rapeseed oil futures price rose this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9726 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, and crude oil prices are at a high level, driving up the oil market. Second, the US biodiesel policy announced that the use of it will increase in the future, and the demand for US soybean oil and palm oil will increase, boosting the oil market. Third, Malaysia's palm oil exports are increasing, which provides support for palm oil prices. With the increase in export demand, the demand for palm oil is strong.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. Rapeseed oil consumption is in the off-season, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is increasing. The market is in oversupply. The upward space of rapeseed oil is still constrained by high inventory, and it is necessary to wait for rapeseed oil to be destocked or for China-Canada trade relations to turn around.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, geopolitics and policies support the oil market. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to risks such as extreme weather speculation in Canada's main producing areas, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 25 (June 16-June 20, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal rose slightly this week, and the meal remained strong. The rapeseed meal market was trading well in the peak season of aquaculture, which was good for the rapeseed meal market. Imported soybeans began to arrive in ports, the operating rate of oil mills increased, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient, suppressing the meal market. The Sino-Canadian trade relations have eased, and the arrival of rapeseed meal in the later period may increase, dragging down the rapeseed meal market price. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will still be mainly oscillating in the short term. The increasing supply of soybean meal and the improvement of Sino-Canadian relations continue to affect the rapeseed meal market, and the possibility of continued price increases is small. Pay more attention to the price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States in the later period.