Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 24, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

Week 24 (June 9-June 13, 2025) National average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.915 yuan/jin, Anhui new season rapeseed oil content 42-43%, quoted at 3.05 yuan/jin; Hubei new season rapeseed oil content 42%, oil color 80 points quoted at 2.85 yuan/jin; Jiangsu old season rapeseed price is around 2.85 yuan/jin; Hunan old season rapeseed price is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; Hubei old season rapeseed price is around 2.85 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price is 3.05-3.15 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions are relatively stable, and the market prices of old season rapeseed in Yunnan and Henan have fallen. At present, domestic rapeseed is in the traditional off-season, but new season rapeseed is on the market, and new season rapeseed is reported to be of good quality in various places. The amount of oil mills in various places has increased steadily, which is good for the rapeseed market. On the supply side, the new season rapeseed main producing areas have increased production and sufficient supply, and the oil mills have a strong mentality to suppress prices, which restricts the rapeseed price. Due to the hot weather, the domestic oil mills have a low operating rate, and fewer ships for long-term rapeseed are purchased, which supports the rapeseed market.

It is expected that the price of new season rapeseed will be mainly stable in the short term. Domestic rapeseed has a bumper harvest, supply has increased, and the demand for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the terminal market is sluggish, and prices may fall steadily. In the later period, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: The Canadian Grain Commission released data showing that as of the week of June 8, Canada's rapeseed exports fell by 9.54% month-on-month to 158,400 tons, compared with 175,100 tons in the previous week.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 24th week (June 9-June 13, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil is: 9540 yuan/ton, which is higher than last week. The reference prices of grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the rapeseed oil futures price rose this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9310 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, there are concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East, which has led to a surge in crude oil prices and a collective rise in oil prices. Second, India's purchases have surged and the export volume of production areas has increased, which has boosted the oil market. Trading on the spot side is sluggish, and downstream purchases are mainly on demand, and the basis is temporarily stable. Domestic rapeseed oil transactions are light, demand is weak, and the short-term loose supply situation continues. Pay attention to the rhythm of destocking.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. In June, rapeseed oil entered the off-season for consumption, downstream demand declined, and the inventory pressure of oil mills increased, and the market supply exceeded demand. The rapeseed oil spot market is weak.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, the tense situation in the Middle East and the surge in crude oil prices have boosted the oil and fat market. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to risks such as extreme weather speculation in Canada's main producing areas, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 24 (June 9-June 13, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal prices rose sharply, and the overall performance of meal was strong. The rapeseed meal market was good, and the sales accelerated, which was good for the rapeseed meal market. The rebound of US soybeans increased the cost of imported soybeans. The large number of domestic orders in the third quarter and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East supported the price of rapeseed meal. In terms of supply and demand, the peak season for aquatic products and increased demand supported the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The improvement of Sino-Canadian relations may drag down the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.