Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 23, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 23rd week (June 2-June 6, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 2.911 yuan/jin. The price of rapeseed in Jiangsu was around 2.85 yuan/jin. The price of old rapeseed in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable. The price of rapeseed in Hubei was around 2.85 yuan/jin. The price of rapeseed in Sichuan was 3.05-3.15 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions were relatively stable, and old rapeseed stopped falling and remained stable. Although rapeseed is currently in the off-season, new rapeseed is on the market, and the amount of oil mills in various places has steadily increased, which is good for the rapeseed market. In terms of supply, the main producing areas of new rapeseed have increased production and supply, which has restricted rapeseed prices. The inventory of imported rapeseed is low, and fewer ships were purchased in July, which may be good for rapeseed prices. It is expected that rapeseed prices will be mainly stable in the short term. Due to the bumper harvest of domestic rapeseed, increased supply, and sluggish demand for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the terminal market, prices may still fall steadily. In the later period, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: Expectations for easing Sino-Canadian relations have increased, market sentiment has eased, and forward import pressure may increase. At this stage, the growing environment of Canadian rapeseed is more important. Recently, the weather in the Canadian grasslands has been hot and dry, with little precipitation. The market is more concerned about the risk of drought. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather conditions in Canada in the later period.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 23rd week (June 2-June 6, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,430 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell this week compared with last week, and the closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9140 yuan/ton. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: the tight supply of old rapeseed crops in the foreign market and the weather market for new crops have led to a rebound in rapeseed prices, boosting the rapeseed oil market. In addition, expectations for easing Sino-Canadian relations have increased, market sentiment has eased, and forward import pressure may increase, dragging down the rapeseed oil market. As for soybean oil, due to the good growth conditions of crops in the United States and the relatively fast planting progress of soybeans in the United States, the supply and demand of soybean oil are relatively loose, lacking the support of favorable factors. As for palm oil, the supply and demand of the producing areas have both increased, lacking upward momentum, and the palm oil market mainly follows the changes of other oils.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed oil sales are not fast and demand is weak. Rapeseed oil inventories have reached a new high, and short-term supply is loose, suppressing the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will be weak in the short term. At present, the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, China-Canada relations have eased, and the domestic rapeseed oil price appreciation sentiment is mild. We need to pay more attention to the market trends of other oils and fats, as well as risks such as extreme weather speculation in Canada's main producing areas, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 23 (June 2-June 6, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week. On June 6, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and exchanged views on bilateral relations, including the importance of engagement, and agreed to standardize the channels of communication between Canada and China. This implies that China-Canada trade relations are expected to ease, which is bearish for rapeseed meal market prices. The trend of US soybeans has strengthened, boosting the rapeseed meal market. In terms of supply and demand, there is no obvious increase in aquatic production, and it is difficult to liquidate inventories, which suppresses the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The improvement of China-Canada relations may drag down the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean-rapeseed meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.