Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 22, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 22nd week (May 26-May 30, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 2.911 yuan/jin. The price of rapeseed in Jiangsu was around 2.85 yuan/jin. The price of old rapeseed in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable. The price of rapeseed in Hubei was around 2.85 yuan/jin. The price of rapeseed in Sichuan was 3.05-3.15 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of new rapeseed in various regions is relatively stable, while the price of old rapeseed is under pressure and falling. Although rapeseed is currently in the off-season, the new rapeseed is on the market, and the amount of oil mills in various places has steadily increased, especially in Sichuan and Shaanxi. Customer demand is strong, which is good for the rapeseed market. In terms of supply, new rapeseed has been listed in large quantities, and the supply is sufficient, which restricts the price of rapeseed. Old rapeseed is being reduced in price to reduce inventory, and the quality is not as good as new rapeseed, so the sales speed is not fast. The inventory of imported rapeseed is low, and there are fewer ships purchased in the long month, which may be good for rapeseed prices. It is expected that rapeseed prices will be mainly stable in the short term. Due to the overall bumper harvest of domestic rapeseed and the sluggish demand for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, as domestic rapeseed is listed in large quantities, the price may still fall steadily. In the later stage, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: At present, the inventory of Canadian rapeseed is tight, which makes the current export volume limited. The planting of new rapeseed in Canada has been completed by about 80%, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the past two months.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 22nd week (May 26-May 30, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,570 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell this week compared with last week, and the main rapeseed oil 2509 closed at 9,348 yuan/ton on Friday. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and the inventory was high, which brought pressure to the market; second, the growth conditions of US soybeans were relatively favorable, making the planting progress of US soybeans relatively fast; in addition, the increase in US soybean import tariffs has led to a continuous increase in the cost of soybean oil raw materials, and the market is more concerned about the tightening of soybean oil supply in the later period, which supports the oil and fat market; third, international oil prices are under pressure to fall, and global biodiesel policies have changed frequently, suppressing the growth of vegetable oil demand. Fourth, changes in Sino-Canadian relations have led to market concerns about the uncertainty of future rapeseed oil supply. Domestic rapeseed oil is at a high level due to weak demand, which is bearish for the oil and fat market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. Domestic rapeseed oil is not moving fast and demand is weak. Rapeseed oil inventories have reached a new high, and short-term supply is loose, suppressing the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will be stable in the short term. The current fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand. There is uncertainty in the development of rapeseed oil, and we need to pay more attention to the market trends of other oils and fats, as well as risks such as extreme weather speculation, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 22 (May 26-May 30, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal rose this week. The transaction volume and delivery volume of rapeseed meal factories have increased recently. In addition, the operation rate of coastal oil mills is low and the aquaculture industry is in the peak season, which makes the rapeseed meal inventory tight, supporting the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The supply of soybean meal is increasing. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino-Canadian relations, the improvement of relations may drag down the rapeseed meal market. Pay more attention to the price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States in the later period.