Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 19, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 19th week (May 5-May 9, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 3.006 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.12 yuan/jin; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, new rapeseed in Hubei market began to be listed sporadically. Hubei new rapeseed 40 contains oil and has good oil color. The loading price of net rapeseed is 2.9 yuan/jin. The market continues to wait and see. Yunnan Luoping new rapeseed 40 contains oil and the loading price of net rapeseed is 2.9 yuan/jin. The speed of goods is average. The relationship between China and Canada in international rapeseed has not yet eased. The import volume of rapeseed in March has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in April. The rapeseed inventory of domestic oil mills continues to be reduced. This week, the price of old rapeseed in various parts of China fluctuated and adjusted in a narrow range. Old rapeseed is in the off-season for sales, and the supply is mainly based on rigid demand, and the price does not change much. It is expected that the price of domestic old rapeseed will remain stable before the new rapeseed is listed in large quantities. Traders are waiting for the new rapeseed to be listed and replenishing on demand. The goods are not sold quickly. If traders are eager to ship out, the price of rapeseed may also fall. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 19th week (May 5-May 9, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,484 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell this week compared with last week, and the closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2505 on Friday was 9355 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the seasonal increase in palm oil production is approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are at a low level, the weakening of production area quotations has led to the gradual emergence of subsequent ship purchases. Second, the soybean oil supply side is due to the purchase of ships to the port, and the oil mill's crushing volume is expected to increase, which increases supply pressure, while the consumer side is not shipping fast, dragging down the oil and fat market. Third, the rapeseed purchased in the early stage of rapeseed oil has arrived at the port, and the supply continues to be high. On the consumer side, due to the policy premium, rapeseed oil maintains rigid demand, and inventory pressure is relatively large.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed oil shipment speed is not fast, and demand is weak. The supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed is sufficient, the rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the short-term supply is loose, which suppresses the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, so rapeseed oil may still run weakly. In the later period, we should pay more attention to whether China-Canada relations will ease, as well as the arrival volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 19 (May 5-May 9, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week. The operating rate of oil mills increased rapidly after the holiday, the tight situation of soybean meal inventory continued to ease, the basis fell sharply, domestic soybean meal fell under pressure, and rapeseed meal followed the weakness. On the supply side, rapeseed meal inventory has fallen significantly. On the demand side, as the temperature rises and the aquaculture industry enters the peak season, rapeseed meal demand is good, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that rapeseed meal prices will be mainly stable in the short term, and as the supply of soybean meal increases in the later period, it may turn to volatile operation. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.