Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (week 7, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

Week 7 (February 10-February 14, 2025) The national average price of rapeseed net seeds is 3.004 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu is around 3.18-3.20 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hunan is 3.00 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hubei is around 2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan is 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices rose in various parts of China. Domestic high-quality rapeseed stocks have bottomed out, and traders are willing to support prices, supporting the domestic rapeseed market. However, after the price increase, market transactions were quiet, and all replenishment was based on demand. In terms of international rapeseed, data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed that as of the week of February 2-February 9, Canada's canola exports increased by 27.5% from the previous week to 185,900 tons. From August 1, 2024 to February 9, 2025, Canada's canola exports were 5.6721 million tons, an increase of 87.1% from 3.0312 million tons in the same period of the previous year. The increase in Canadian canola exports supported the Canadian rapeseed market.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The supply of domestic rapeseed has been slightly tight recently, and demand has weakened after the price increase, so the price of rapeseed may continue to be stable. Sino-Canadian relations have been repeatedly tense, and we need to pay attention to the direction of the hearing on February 20. We also need to pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 7th week (February 10-February 14, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 8,818 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and fell this week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2505 on Friday was 8799 yuan/ton. The reason for the slight decline in rapeseed oil was that it was affected by the decline in international oil prices and the profit-taking of long positions. The three major oils fell together. The inventory of rapeseed oil after the holiday was still high, which was bearish for the rapeseed oil market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed supply is still abundant, and the rapeseed oil inventory remains at a relatively high level. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil plants is still low after the Spring Festival. The number of rapeseed ships arriving at the port is relatively small, and the start-up time of each oil plant has been delayed. The pressure on the supply side has eased, but the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is still high.

It is expected that the price of rapeseed oil futures will rise in the short term, the inventory of palm oil producing areas will decrease and production will be reduced, and Indonesia has announced the implementation of the B40 plan next month, which will support the rapeseed oil market. At present, there are variables in the international trade situation, and policy changes such as tariffs will affect the global rapeseed trade situation.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 7 (February 10-14, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week. The overall operating rate of oil mills with rising rapeseed meal prices remained at a low level, rapeseed meal supply was weak, and speculation sentiment was high, supporting the rise in rapeseed meal prices. It is expected that rapeseed meal oil mills will gradually resume operation in the short term, and spot speculation sentiment will cool down rapidly, and rapeseed meal may fall under pressure. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower and rapeseed meal, the port volume and the operation status, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.