Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading overview and analysis forecast (week 20, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 20th week (May 12-May 16, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 3.002 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.12 yuan/jin; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.15 yuan/jin, falling. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, new rapeseed in Hubei Province has been put on the market, and Anhui and Yunnan Provinces have been put on the market one after another. The price of old rapeseed in some areas has dropped slightly. Domestic rapeseed is in the off-season, mainly for rigid demand. New rapeseed has not yet been put on the market, the supply is tight, and the price has not changed much. It is expected that the price of domestic old rapeseed will remain stable before the new rapeseed is put on the market in large quantities. Traders are waiting for the new rapeseed to be put on the market and replenishing it on demand. If the goods are not moving fast, the price of rapeseed may also fall if traders are eager to leave the warehouse. We also need to pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: The latest report from the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture and Agri-Food shows that as of May 15, the rapeseed planting completion rate in Manitoba Province reached 65%, which is 14 percentage points faster than the five-year average. The progress of Canada's new season planting is far beyond expectations. According to the China-Canada bilateral agreement, the rapeseed import inspection standards may be adjusted from June 10, and some crushing companies have suspended June shipment purchases.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 20th week (May 12-May 16, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,484 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell this week compared with last week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 9,355 yuan/ton on Friday. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, palm oil is expected to weaken again due to the weakening of US biodiesel policy expectations, and domestic imports are expected to increase, and it has gradually begun to accumulate stocks. Focus on biodiesel policy and macro drivers. Second, the US Department of Agriculture's soybean oil supply and demand data is bullish, and domestic soybeans have increased in port crushing, and expectations are weak, which may remain volatile. Third, the purchase of long-term rapeseed ships has decreased, and oil mills have a strong willingness to support prices, supporting the rapeseed market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed oil sales are not fast, and demand is weak. The supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed is sufficient, rapeseed oil inventory is high, and short-term supply is loose, which suppresses the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fall in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand. In addition, Sino-Canadian relations have eased, and rapeseed may be weak. Continue to pay attention to the arrival of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 20 (May 12-16, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week. The trade relations between China and the United States have eased, and the USDA report predicts that global rapeseed production in 25/26 will hit a record high, which has suppressed rapeseed meal prices. The oil mill operation rate has been high recently. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the rapeseed crushing volume is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal destocking is slow, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will be mainly stable in the short term, and it may turn to volatile operation as the supply of soybean meal increases in the later period. In the later period, pay more attention to the soybean meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States. (May 12, 2025 - May 16, 2025) The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions are as follows: