Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 21, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 21st week (May 19-May 23, 2025), the average price of rapeseed net seeds nationwide was 2.996 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.12 yuan/jin; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.15 yuan/jin, falling. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, new rapeseeds from various regions are gradually being put on the market. The trading of new and old rapeseeds is average. Rapeseed is in the off-season, mainly driven by rigid demand. New rapeseeds have not yet been put on the market in large quantities, and the supply is average, so the price of new rapeseeds has not changed much. It is expected that the price of domestic old rapeseeds will remain stable before the new rapeseeds are put on the market in large quantities. Some traders are still waiting for the new rapeseeds to be put on the market in large quantities. They replenish stocks on demand and do not stock up, so the rapeseeds are not moving fast. For traders of old rapeseeds, if they are eager to leave the warehouse, they may reduce prices to clear inventory. In the later stage, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseeds and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

International rapeseed: The planting of Canadian rapeseed is progressing. As of May 19, 58% of the rapeseeds have been planted in Saskatchewan. The current soil is moderate and generally suitable for planting.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 21st week (May 19-May 23, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,620 yuan/ton, which is higher than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared with last week, and the main rapeseed oil 2509 closed at 9,391 yuan/ton on Friday. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the MPOB monthly report shows a large accumulation of Malaysian palm oil, which has great inventory pressure and is bearish for the oil and fat market, suppressing the rise in rapeseed oil prices; second, the US biodiesel policy proposal continues to disturb the market, and the speculation of floods in Argentina has slightly supported the soybean oil market; third, Sino-Canadian relations may become tense, and the Canadian Finance Minister has provoked a trade dispute, and the possibility of my country's anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed has increased.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand, and the domestic rapeseed oil sales are not fast, and demand is weak. Rapeseed oil inventories have reached a new high, and short-term supply is loose, suppressing the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will be stable in the short term, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil will be strong in supply and weak in demand. In addition, Sino-Canadian relations are tense again, and the rapeseed oil situation may be tense. We need to continue to pay attention to risks such as extreme weather speculation, international trade policy shifts, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the 21st week (May 19-May 23, 2025) are as follows: The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in the 21st week (May 19-May 23, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week. The supply of raw materials in the rapeseed meal market has been tight recently, and the pressure on the supply side has been reduced. The market operating rate remains at a medium-low level. There is no new purchase of rapeseed ships for the time being, and the raw materials may be in short supply, which supports the rapeseed meal market. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the speed of goods sales is slower than expected, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will be mainly stable in the short term. With the increase in soybean meal supply in the later period, it may turn to volatile operation. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.