Rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal trading summary and analysis forecast (Week 16, 2025)

01 Rapeseed

In the 16th week (April 14-April 18, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 3,000 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.13-3.15 yuan/jin, falling; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China were stable with a slight decline. Prices in Sichuan and Jiangsu fell, while ICE rapeseed prices rebounded. There are fewer high-quality sources in the market, prices are relatively firm, and traders are slow to sell. New rapeseed is about to be listed, and traders are waiting for the new rapeseed to be listed. They are not enthusiastic about the old rapeseed and are starting to lower prices, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. At present, the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is at a high level, suppressing the price of rapeseed. It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable before the new rapeseed is listed. The inventory of old rapeseed will decrease, and traders are waiting for the new rapeseed to be listed. They replenish stocks on demand and sell goods slowly, so the price of rapeseed may also fall. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed and the subsequent development of the anti-dumping incident.

In terms of international rapeseed, Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated strongly, mainly supported by the strength of Chicago soybean and European rapeseed futures. The crushing volume of imported rapeseed in coastal areas has decreased, and the demand for rapeseed has weakened.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 16th week (April 14-April 18, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,308 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell slightly this week compared with last week, and the main rapeseed oil 2505 closed at 9221 yuan/ton on Friday. The following reasons affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, soybeans did not arrive at the port in time due to port inspection and quarantine and other issues, and the supply of soybeans was tight, the operating rate was reduced, and the supply of oil cakes was tight, supporting the oil and fat market. Second, palm oil has entered the stage of increasing production, and the supply and demand pattern has turned to loose, which is bearish for the palm oil market.

The fundamentals of rapeseed oil in the spot market are still strong in supply and weak in demand. The domestic rapeseed oil sales are not fast and the demand is weak. The supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed is sufficient, the rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the short-term supply is loose, which suppresses the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that the price of rapeseed oil futures will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, so rapeseed oil may still run weakly. In the later period, pay more attention to the relationship between China, Canada and the United States, as well as the arrival volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil also needs to be vigilant against repeated disturbances in China-Canada policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 16 (April 14-18, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices fell this week. On the supply side, rapeseed meal stocks have dropped significantly and are at a medium level in the same period of history. On the demand side, rapeseed meal market transactions have weakened and sales are slow. At the same time, the tight supply of soybean meal has eased recently, and prices have fallen under pressure, which has dragged down rapeseed meal to a certain extent. It is expected that rapeseed meal prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the later period, more attention will be paid to the soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.